2010/11/05

ラオスへ











首都Vientianで滞在。
複数の企業(日系・非日系)・JETRO・JICAを訪問しました。

http://rantoshak.blogspot.com/2010/11/influence-of-indias-export-restrictions.html#more

収益性から綿花→とうもろこし等へのシフトがラオスでも進んでおり、ますます需給バランスが崩れそうです。

Many people have emailed asking me to comment on the recent run-up in global cotton prices. To be sure, recent price gains have put quite a scare into the textile supply chain as everyone from cotton merchants to apparel brands have felt the effects of higher cotton prices and reduced margins. This squeeze, in turn, has left many wondering if these higher prices are here to stay or will ease before too long. I'm sure most will agree that prices will ease at some point, but knowing exactly when is anyone's guess.

At any rate, it is clear that several forces have collided resulting in record-high prices for cotton (at today's writing hovering around US $1.25/lb on the ICE Exchange). This confluence of forces includes increased demand for cotton by textile mills around the world thanks to a general replenishment of cotton inventories that were drawn down during the global recession, coupled with a poor crop in China, flooding in Pakistan and a restriction by the Indian government in cotton exports. Consequently, the market has had to deal with a classic case of too much demand for too little production resulting in dramatically higher prices for cotton -- in fact, as I read over the weekend, resulting in greater gains in cotton prices than those posted in gold so far this year!

Although the supply and demand issues are due primarily to the vagaries of market demand and the unpredictability of nature, the actions of the Indian government are clearly identifiable and have only made a difficult situation worse. In its efforts to ensure an expanded (and moderately priced) supply of cotton within India for local textile mills -- a competitive tool, to be sure -- the Indian government has artificially restricted the supply of cotton on world markets via its imposition of an export quota. Further, this has been made even worse by a government policy that has been imposed, then dropped, then reimposed several times which has only built insecurity into a global cotton market already reeling from an already tough supply and demand situation.



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